retirement income The official forecast is the only place a personal State Pension figure comes from, it is free, and it takes a few minutes. It is also widely misread — as a promise of a future amount, as a complete picture of retirement income, and as something that applies to people it was never designed for.
Every discussion of State Pension rates ends at the same place: the published figures describe full standard rates, and an individual entitlement is something else. The service that bridges the gap is Check your State Pension forecast on GOV.UK.
It is worth using. It is also worth knowing what it is actually telling you.
What you need, and what you get
Access requires a GOV.UK One Login and identity verification, usually with a passport, driving licence or credit record. A postal alternative exists for anyone who cannot verify online.
The service returns:
- A forecast weekly amount at State Pension age.
- The date State Pension age is reached.
- The amount built up so far, based on the record to date.
- A year-by-year National Insurance record, showing which years qualified.
- Any gaps, and whether they can still be filled.
- A COPE figure, where contracting out applies.
The two numbers that get confused
The forecast shows two different amounts, and conflating them is the most common error.
| Figure | What it assumes |
|---|---|
| Built up so far | Nothing further is contributed from today. A floor, not a prediction. |
| Forecast at State Pension age | Contributions or credits continue in every remaining year until State Pension age. |
Someone who stops work early, moves abroad or has a long period without credits will not reach the forecast figure. The forecast is conditional, and the condition is stated on the page.
it is in today's moneyThe forecast is expressed at current rates. It does not project future upratings, and it is not adjusted for inflation. Someone fifteen years from State Pension age should read it as "what this record is worth at today's rates", not as the cash amount that will arrive.
Who it is not for
The service is designed for people who have not yet reached State Pension age. It does not serve:
- Anyone already receiving the State Pension — the award letter and the Pension Service are the sources there.
- Anyone who has deferred a claim. Deferral uplifts are not modelled by the forecast; the Pension Service handles those enquiries.
If either applies, the figures on screen can mislead rather than help.
What COPE actually is
Where someone was contracted out before April 2016, the forecast shows a Contracted Out Pension Equivalent. It is frequently misunderstood as money that can be claimed from somewhere.
It is not. COPE is an estimate of the Additional State Pension that was given up through contracting out, shown so that the forecast figure makes sense. The corresponding amount sits in the workplace or personal pension that was contracted out — it is not paid by the Department for Work and Pensions, and the actual scheme pension may be more or less than the COPE estimate. We cover the mechanism in why two people the same age get different State Pensions.
What the forecast leaves out entirely
It covers the State Pension and nothing else. It does not show:
- Workplace or personal pensions. For those, the Pensions Dashboard programme and individual scheme statements are the route; old schemes can be traced through the government's Pension Tracing Service.
- Pension Credit or other benefits that may be payable alongside it — see why Pension Credit goes unclaimed by so many who qualify.
- Tax. The forecast is a gross figure. Why a bigger pension can still mean a tax bill covers that side.
- Inherited entitlement from a spouse or civil partner, which is assessed when a claim is made.
- Future rule changes, including scheduled State Pension age increases beyond those already legislated.
How to read it properly
A sensible sequence:
- Check the State Pension age date first. It is often later than assumed, and everything else follows from it.
- Read the "so far" figure as the floor and the forecast as the ceiling under current rules.
- Scan the year list for gaps, and check whether a free credit covers any of them before considering payment — what a gap in your National Insurance record actually costs sets out the order.
- Treat the figure as today's money when comparing it with today's outgoings — which is the right comparison, since both move over time.
- Check it again every few years, particularly after a career break, a move abroad or a change in employment.
Where it can be wrong
The forecast is built from the National Insurance record HMRC holds, and that record is occasionally incomplete. The usual culprits are missing credits rather than missing contributions: a Child Benefit claim made in a partner's name, a carer's credit never applied for, or a period on benefits that did not register.
A year that shows as not qualifying, when you know you were working or caring, is worth querying with HMRC. These are corrected regularly, and the correction flows through to the forecast.
Nobody should pay for this
The forecast is free from GOV.UK. Commercial services offering to "check your State Pension" or "find your missing pension" for a fee add nothing to it and have no access to anything the official service does not show. The same applies to the Pension Tracing Service for lost workplace pensions, which is also free.
The point worth taking away
The forecast answers one question well: what the National Insurance record is worth at today's rates, and what it could be worth if contributions continue. It is not a guarantee, not a full retirement income statement, and not designed for people already drawing their pension. Read with those limits in mind, it is the most useful few minutes available on the subject.
sources
General information. This article is sponsored content published by Riescola Pres, a service of Exigon Consulting OÜ. It explains published public rules and figures and is not personal financial, tax or legal advice. Riescola Pres is independent of, and not endorsed by, GOV.UK, the Department for Work and Pensions or HM Revenue & Customs, and no application can be made through this website. Any amounts shown are the official published rates for the stated period or clearly labelled worked examples; what an individual receives depends on their own record and circumstances. Figures correct as at 15 October 2026.
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